by Aleksandra Pospieszyńska
My latest newspaper concerns climate changes during the instrumental measurements catamenia (1871–2010) inwards Toruń, which is located inwards Central Poland (Europe).
The climate is constantly changing. Some of these changes tin endure noticed over the course of teaching of a human life. Other changes are visible entirely on longer fourth dimension scales.
In this post, nosotros volition await closely at the changes observed during the catamenia of instrumental measurements.
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| Toruń, Poland |
The climate is constantly changing. Some of these changes tin endure noticed over the course of teaching of a human life. Other changes are visible entirely on longer fourth dimension scales.
In this post, nosotros volition await closely at the changes observed during the catamenia of instrumental measurements.
Why create nosotros quest the longest as well as the best character of measuring serial inwards studies on climate history?
Longer serial of measurements permit us to decide how the climate changes with greater accuracy, as well as to calibrate models, both for the reconstruction of the climate inwards the yesteryear as well as its predictions for the future.
The minimum catamenia that tin endure considered inwards climatological enquiry is xxx years. If nosotros await at the terminal xxx years, nosotros are dealing alongside a remarkably rapid growth inwards air temperature. Conversely, if nosotros accept some other period, for instance 1940–1970, Toruń volition seem every bit a really mutual frigidity city.
A 140-year series, however, tin push clit the climate inwards Toruń without the burden of such short-term changes. In addition, inwards the above-mentioned climate modelling, the longer the used measuring serial are, the to a greater extent than reliable the modelling results of hereafter climate alter become.
Or, putting it the other way around, the GIGO (Garbage In = Garbage Out) regulation applies here: bad information input volition outcome inwards bad climate models.
What are the principal technical problems alongside a long-term serial of climate information as well as how many of them are there?
The minimum catamenia that tin endure considered inwards climatological enquiry is xxx years. If nosotros await at the terminal xxx years, nosotros are dealing alongside a remarkably rapid growth inwards air temperature. Conversely, if nosotros accept some other period, for instance 1940–1970, Toruń volition seem every bit a really mutual frigidity city.
A 140-year series, however, tin push clit the climate inwards Toruń without the burden of such short-term changes. In addition, inwards the above-mentioned climate modelling, the longer the used measuring serial are, the to a greater extent than reliable the modelling results of hereafter climate alter become.
Or, putting it the other way around, the GIGO (Garbage In = Garbage Out) regulation applies here: bad information input volition outcome inwards bad climate models.
What are the principal technical problems alongside a long-term serial of climate information as well as how many of them are there?
There are many problems inwards the written report of climate change. A brusque listing of those I receive got been struggling alongside is shown below alongside a brusque description.
1. Data availability
Poland’s tumultuous history, alongside numerous wars as well as partitions, has caused that finding historical climate-related sources requires searching libraries as well as archives non entirely inwards Poland, but too inwards Germany, Russia, Ukraine, Republic of Lithuania as well as Austria. Unfortunately, numerous sets of information receive got been lost irrevocably. Therefore, each source establish or a reconstructed long serial of information is an of import contribution to the climate alter variability of this business office of Europe.
The information from the catamenia 1871–2010 are derived from hand-written sources (measurement logbooks) as well as printed sources (meteorological yearbooks) published starting fourth dimension yesteryear the Prussian as well as and so the High German as well as the Polish meteorological services.
2. Different measurements systems as well as instruments
The even out of meteorological measurements inwards Toruń, cited subsequently my newest paper:
“In the catamenia 1872–1890, the measurements were conducted yesteryear the Royal Prussian Meteorological Institute. Political changes inwards the High German Empire—a alter inwards Chancellor inwards 1890—led inwards 1891 to the meteorological service changing scream from the Prussian to the High German Meteorological Institute. It conducted observations nearly until the terminate of the World War I. After the provide of Toruń to Poland inwards 1920, inwards the catamenia 1921–1939, observations inwards the town were conducted yesteryear the Polish National Meteorological Institute. The Second World War brought farther changes inwards meteorological measurements—they were assumed over again yesteryear the High German service. After the war—from 1945, meteorological measurements as well as observations were conducted yesteryear Soviet regular army until 1947 (Zieliński, pers. comm.) as well as and so yesteryear the National Hydrological as well as Meteorological Institute (PIHM). In 1971, PIHM was re-named every bit the Institute of Meteorology as well as Water Management (IMGW), as well as over again inwards 2010 every bit the Institute of Meteorology as well as Water Management—National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB).”
As you lot tin imagine, each service used their ain instruments as well as methodology of measurements, which caused time out inwards information series.
“In the catamenia 1872–1890, the measurements were conducted yesteryear the Royal Prussian Meteorological Institute. Political changes inwards the High German Empire—a alter inwards Chancellor inwards 1890—led inwards 1891 to the meteorological service changing scream from the Prussian to the High German Meteorological Institute. It conducted observations nearly until the terminate of the World War I. After the provide of Toruń to Poland inwards 1920, inwards the catamenia 1921–1939, observations inwards the town were conducted yesteryear the Polish National Meteorological Institute. The Second World War brought farther changes inwards meteorological measurements—they were assumed over again yesteryear the High German service. After the war—from 1945, meteorological measurements as well as observations were conducted yesteryear Soviet regular army until 1947 (Zieliński, pers. comm.) as well as and so yesteryear the National Hydrological as well as Meteorological Institute (PIHM). In 1971, PIHM was re-named every bit the Institute of Meteorology as well as Water Management (IMGW), as well as over again inwards 2010 every bit the Institute of Meteorology as well as Water Management—National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB).”
As you lot tin imagine, each service used their ain instruments as well as methodology of measurements, which caused time out inwards information series.
3. Changing inwards place of measurements sites
The locations of unlike categories of meteorological stations inwards Toruń as well as the make of observations were changed due to political changes, 2 world wars, urban expansion as well as a alter inwards the issue of stations themselves (which are shown inwards the figure below). In the 1920s, for example, iv stations were operated concurrently yesteryear the armed services meteorological services – years of stations’ operations are too shown inwards the figure below.
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Locations as well as observation lengths of meteorological stations inwards Toruń (Pospieszyńska as well as Przybylak 2018) |
4. Inhomogeneity of the data
For the Toruń series, interruptions inside the serial are mainly seen inwards times when stations were moved as well as changes were made inwards measuring methods: 1878, 1889, 1921, 1939, 1945, 1970 as well as 1981. This inhomogeneity may atomic number 82 to fake conclusions during farther analyses. Therefore, the information was homogenised to avoid whatever influence caused yesteryear e.g. changing the place of the meteorological site.
So what are the long-term changes inwards air temperature inwards Toruń?
The annual average air temperature was 7.7 °C as well as ranged from 4.9 °C inwards 1871 to 9.7 °C inwards 2000 as well as the tendency inwards the average air temperature is upwards as well as statistically pregnant (which way this alter is visible as well as strong) – meet figure below. The tendency is simply about 0.1 °C per decade as well as hence like to that for Europe every bit a whole ([1], [2], [3], [4], [5]).
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Air temperatures inwards Toruń from 1871–2010 (Pospieszyńska as well as Przybylak 2018) |
The plow of the 20th to 21st century had the highest frequency of extremely warm years. Meanwhile, a higher frequency of extremely cool years was seen inwards the 1940s as well as earlier 1900.
The analysis of Toruń for the catamenia 1871–2010 revealed a marked shortening of wintertime (by 29 days) as well as a lengthening of summertime (by xix days) inwards the catamenia from the terminate of the 19th century to the acquaint day. There were too pregnant changes inwards the start as well as the terminate dates of private seasons.
Shortening of wintertime as well as lengthening of summertime every bit good every bit changes inwards their start as well as terminate dates confirm statistically pregnant warming inwards Europe inwards the terminal 140 years.
Details are available inwards my article in Theoretical as well as Applied Climatology.
Shortening of wintertime as well as lengthening of summertime every bit good every bit changes inwards their start as well as terminate dates confirm statistically pregnant warming inwards Europe inwards the terminal 140 years.
Details are available inwards my article in Theoretical as well as Applied Climatology.
Aleksandra Pospieszyńska, PhD
Department of Meteorology as well as Climatology, Faculty of footing Sciences, Nicolaus Copernicus University
If you lot receive got questions or comments concerning Aleksandra’s post, delight travel out a comment below or ship her an email.
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References:
Linked article: Pospieszyńska A, Przybylak R (2018) Air temperature changes inwards Toruń (central Poland) from 1871 to 2010. Theor Appl Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2413-9
[1] Rebetez M, Reinhard M (2007) Monthly air temperature trends inwards Switzerland 1901-2000 as well as 1975-2004. Theor Appl Climatol 91:27–34. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-007-0296-2
[2] Dobrovolný P, Brázdil R, Valášek H, Kotyza O, Macková J, Halíčková M (2009) A criterion paleoclimatological approach to temperature reconstruction inwards historical climatology: an instance from the Czech Republic, a.D. 1718 – 2007. Int J Climatol 29:1478–1492
[3] Leijonhufvud L, Wilson R, Moberg A, Söderberg J, Retsö D, Söderlind U (2010) Five centuries of Stockholm winter/spring temperatures reconstructed from documentary bear witness as well as instrumental observations. Clim Chang 101:109–141
[4] Mikkonen S, Laine M, Mäkelä HM, Gregow H, Tuomenvirta H, Lahtinen M, Laaksonen A (2015) Trends inwards the average temperature inwards Finland, 1847-2013. Stoch Env Res Risk A 29:1521–1529
[5] Niedźwiedź T, Glaser R, Hansson D, Helama S, Klimenko V, Łupikasza E, Małarzewski Ł, Nordli Ø, Przybylak R, Riemann D, Solomina O (2015) The historical fourth dimension frame (past K years). In: Second Assessment of climate alter for the Baltic Sea basin . Regional Climate Studies, pp 51–65